Iowa Diatribes

I think recent events deserve some diatribing...let's go through some:

Item #1: The Obama Surge
Only 3 months ago, Hillary Clinton had pretty much wrapped up the Democratic nomination. So, what just happened? Clinton essentially had four things going against her:
1. Too far ahead too early
2. Trying to wrap up the primaries by exposure as a national candidate
3. An overrated self-sense of charisma
4. Peculiarities of the Iowa caucuses

Quite frankly, Hillary peaked too early. It's the same mistake that Dean made 4 years ago. By becoming THE candidate in October, Clinton left herself open to constant attacks for 3 months. These eventually brought her down and made her look vulnerable.

Hillary expected that her high poll numbers across the country would give her the automatic support from those essential early states, like Iowa. This was a serious blunder, because recent elections and the crunch of this primary schedule meant that early momentum was essential, especially in Iowa. Kerry and Edwards made their campaigns in Iowa 4 years ago. This year, Edwards and Obama focuses almost all of their resources in Iowa. Clinton did not meet the challenge and the tactical error could cost her the election.

Hillary, by most accounts, was exceptional in the like 300 debates the Democrats had leading up to yesterday. She, the media, and her campaign staff assumed that these skills would translate to stumping. Unfortunately, they all forgot that she has almost no grassroots political experience beyond campaigning alongside her husband. Iowa is a door-to-door type campaign. Hillary simply did not appear likeable and personable in Iowa's diners, cafes, and fairs.

The Iowa caucus is very unusual (more on that later), but one of its peculiarities is that to get votes within a caucus a candidate must get around 15% of the voters. If they do not, those voters disperse and head to other candidates. Since people voting for candidates other than Hillary were already choosing an anti-Hillary/frontrunner candidate, they were more likely to join the Edwards and Obama groups. Perhaps if a straight vote were given Hillary might have won or at least come in second as there would be more splitting of the vote. As it was, Biden, Kucinich, and Dodd had a combined one caucus vote for them (basically 0%.) If those voters were not allowed to move to other candidates, each of these candidates would probably have gotten 2-3%.

On all these issues, Obama had the advantage. He became the consensus alternative choice, he focused his energy in Iowa since he began campaigning (he only opened a California branch a couple months ago, for goodness sake), he was more likeable on a personal basis where he was given more than 30 seconds to explain his positions, and he benefited from the Iowa caucus system.

Item #2: Iowa?
To the outsider it may seem odd that Iowa, a state with a population of 3 million (1/30th of California) that is 95% white, has garnered so much attention. Those in the know will recognize that Iowa is only important because it is first. The next question is why does Iowa deserve to be first?

The quick answer is that it doesn't. Iowa by almost any measure is not representative of the nation at large. It unfairly benefits from millions of dollars being spent in the state every 4 years by politicians and media outlets. And it gives a small minority (despite everything only about 1/10 of eligible voters in Iowa actually showed up to caucus) incredible power. It also has a voting system that is as quaint as it is ridiculous: voters go to someone's house at exactly 7:00, get into groups, argue around a dinner table, and finally the entire caucus chooses one candidate. There is no anonymity, voters are encouraged to switch sides by their neighbors who just made them that delicious fruitcake for Christmas, and the chief activity of each candidate's campaign staff on this day is baking cookies.

Yet, I think it is fantastic. I just love the Iowa caucuses. Iowa forces the candidates to meet real people. Aside from the mega-weekend leading up to New Hamphire begun this morning, this will be the only time that candidates will be going to door to door, shaking hands at Denny's, or holding rallies in a family room. And I must say, Iowans, or at least those that vote, take it very seriously. It may sound incredible, but it is not uncommon or really difficult for a voter to meet EVERY candidate. Iowans do for America what realistically cannot be done after New Hampshire: they figure out if candidates are 'real.' They have real conservations with them. They get to see them outside of the glamor of tv commercials and they force the candidates to remember who they are serving and how politicians are supposed to get people's vote.

My only complaint with Iowa is that every serious candidate must endorse ethanol, despite the fact that it uses more petroleum than it saves simply because the state is the leading producer of corn in the nation.



Item #3: Hucka-who?

I've long thought that a social conservative with an economically populist message would have their way paved to the Whitehouse...if he/she were a Democrat. Unfortunately, Huckabee is in the wrong party. He's also, in my estimation, not a serious candidate. Don't get me wrong, what Huckabee did in Iowa was astonishing: the least funded Republican in the field just dominated the primary despite promising to make Steve Colbert his VP (not seriously, I assume), planning to throw out the tax system with the bath water, defending creationism, comparing Rowe vs. Wade to the holocaust, being a member of a rock band called "Capitol Offense," asking Mitt Romney in a debate if Mormons believed Jesus was the brother of Satan, and a hare-brained immigration reform scheme wherein immigrants would be required to return to the country they originated from for one day.
Even Huckabee must realize that he has little hope of competing nationally. Huckabee's economic policies will alienate the libertarian wing of the party that is already uncomfortable with his social conservatism. Huckabee won Iowa because of the support of evangelicals. This support will carry him through the South and parts of the Midwest, but without attracting swing voters that Republicans are going to need in droves, most will give up on him as they realize he has too much baggage.

Item #4: The Fair Tax
I'm amazed that the media hasn't talked about this more, but Huckabee has a clear plan to reform the tax system. It is not a new idea, but certainly is a radical one. Quite honestly, I don't know how I feel about it yet. All I can say is that it has long been the dream system for economists who specialize in the tax system.
For a more thorough description of the plan, I would recommend viewing this surprisingly good summary from wikipedia. Basically, the plan would eliminate income taxes (and with it the IRS), and just have people pay sales taxes (of about 25%). To make the tax progressive (since poorer people spend a higher percentage of their income on necessity consumption), a tax rebate would be given to poor families based on family size. I don't know if this is a good idea, but it is a different idea. It would encourage saving and investment, get rid of all the expenditures associated with the IRS, and bring in offshore accounts (which some estimates say are as high as $11 trillion.)